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Minnesota Budget Outlook and Trends

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The state's budget is influenced by economic conditions, and in return, state budget and policy decisions should be informed by how Minnesotans are being effected by the economy. We provide analysis of the state's economic and budget forecasts as well as research on long-term budget trends.

Research

August 2022

Inadequate state funding puts higher education further out of reach

Decreasing state funding to public higher education institutions over the years has dramatically increased costs for students and their families. This brief looks at how disinvestment has shifted tuition costs to students, and has disproportionately harmed low-income and BIPOC students.

February 2020

Minnesota should invest in the future: Inside the November 2019 Economic Forecast

The November 2019 Economic Forecast brought some positive news for now, but predicts a more challenging budget situation in the future. Minnesota is in positive budget territory with a $1.3 billion balance projected for the current two-year budget cycle, FY 2020-21. However, that good news is short-lived. Faced with a short-term surplus, policymakers have an opportunity to make some one-time investments.

February 2018

Minnesota needs to prepare for future: Inside the November 2017 Economic Forecast

The November Economic Forecast projects a $188 million deficit for FY 2018-19 and a $586 million deficit for FY 2020-21. This brief examines the forecast’s economic data that show Minnesota’s economy is still doing fairly well, and that the national economy is expected to grow, although at a slower rate than previously projected. These budgetary projections do not include the impact of likely federal tax and budget changes; state policymakers should ensure Minnesota is fully prepared to navigate the uncharted landscape ahead.

February 2017

Caution is key: Inside the February 2017 Economic Forecast

Minnesota continues its positive budget trend, with a $743 million positive balance for the rest of FY 2016-17 and a $1.7 billion projected positive balance for the upcoming FY 2018-19 budget cycle. These projected balances provide opportunities for the state to make smart investments to bring the economic recovery to every part of the state. However, an uncertain federal budget and tax landscape calls for caution. Minnesota lawmakers should avoid large and unsustainable tax cuts that could put our economic future on shaky ground.

Budget Outlook and Trends Blog Posts

October 26, 2022

What are the state budget implications of a potential national recession?

While the state of Minnesota’s revenues have continued to come in better than expected, more serious economic challenges are expected ahead, including a recession starting this fall.

July 14, 2022

State revenues are strong, but national economy is weakening

The state of Minnesota’s revenue picture for FY 2022 remains solid, but the national economic recovery is expected to be...

April 15, 2022

Minnesota April Economic Update includes first estimates of impact of Russia invasion of Ukraine

The state of Minnesota’s revenue picture to date is still solid, but the national economic recovery is now expected to...

March 01, 2022

New budget forecast continues to show resources available to build an equitable recovery

The State of Minnesota is expected to see unprecedented levels of resources, including a strong boost in the short-term ...