Minnesota Budget Outlook and Trends

The state's budget is influenced by economic conditions, and in return, state budget and policy decisions should be informed by how Minnesotans are being effected by the economy. We provide analysis of the state's economic and budget forecasts as well as research on long-term budget trends.

Research

September 2002

Trends in Minnesota government spending

Between 1987 and 1997 (the period of time examined by this report), Minnesota trailed the national average in terms of growth in government spending. However, state and local government investments in public services and infrastructure contributed positively to Minnesota’s economic health and quality of life.

January 2002

Wasted opportunities: How we used our surpluses 1997-2001

Between 1997 and 2001, Minnesota policymakers had the opportunity to allocate budget surpluses of over $13 billion. This joint analysis with the Children's Defense Fund-Minnesota finds that over half of those surpluses went to temporary tax rebates and permanent tax cuts. Budget-balancing decisions should be informed by how surpluses were used in the past and how certain programs were underfunded even in times of plenty.

1 2 3 4 5 6

Budget Outlook and Trends Blog Posts

April 16, 2024

Latest economic report shows Minnesota revenues coming in above forecast

Minnesota’s revenues are up, and the near-term national economic outlook is slightly improved compared to the February forecast, according to the new April Revenue and Economic Update from Minnesota Management and Budget. Here are some of the Minnesota Budget Project's top takeaways from the update, including what this might mean for budget and tax decisions this legislative session.

March 08, 2024

Minnesota February Budget Forecast shows improvement

The latest Minnesota budget and economic forecast shows an overall improved state budget picture. The forecast predicts a $3.7 billion general fund surplus projected for the current two-year budget cycle, followed by a $2.2 billion projected positive balance at the end of FY 2026-27. The improved outlook is largely the result of higher projected tax revenues estimated to come into the state. In this blog, we share our takes on the recent forecast and what comes next, which will provide policymakers, advocates, and the public with information to guide upcoming budget decisions in the 2024 Legislative Session.

December 18, 2023

Minnesota’s November Budget Forecast is a mixed bag

The state budget forecast predicts an $82 million positive balance at the end of the four years covered by the forecast. One-time surplus dollars generated in the past continue to be an important funding source throughout the four-year budget window. In this blog, we share our high-level takes on the forecast, which gives policymakers, advocates, and the public an initial look at the state’s budget landscape as we get closer to the upcoming legislative session.

November 27, 2023

Recent information points to stronger state budget picture

Recent budget reports suggest that Minnesota will likely project a larger budget surplus when the next legislative session kicks off. This in part reflects the fact that the national economy has performed more strongly this year than was previously anticipated. In October, Minnesota Management and Budget determined that the prior FY 2022-23 final general fund balance was $820 million higher than end-of-session estimates.

More Outlook and Trends Blogs